Asteroid 2024 YR4's Collision Odds Are Rising

An asteroid up to 300 feet wide could potentially collide with Earth in 2032, although NASA maintains that the likelihood of such an event is "extremely low." Despite this, the chances of a collision have been rising since the asteroid’s discovery just weeks ago.

NASA recently reported that the probability of the asteroid, named 2024 YR4, striking Earth on December 22, 2032, is currently 2.3%, or roughly 1 in 43. This marks a significant increase from the agency’s initial estimate of 1.2% in late January. At that time, NASA noted that no other large asteroids had a collision probability exceeding 1%.

The space agency is closely tracking the asteroid’s orbit, and while it has stated that the threat of an impact could eventually be ruled out, it also acknowledged that the likelihood of a collision could continue to rise as more data is gathered.

2024 YR4 is estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet in diameter. If it were to hit Earth, the asteroid would likely strike at an estimated speed of around 38,000 mph, according to NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies. Although the impact would likely cause localized damage, it would not pose a global or existential threat, as would be the case with much larger asteroids.

Asteroid 2024 YR4's Collision Odds Are Rising—Could It Hit Earth in 2032?

The asteroid was first spotted by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) station in Chile on December 27, 2024. Since then, researchers have been observing it using ground-based telescopes. The asteroid will remain visible to these observatories through April, after which it will become too faint to track until around June 2028.

To gain further insight into the asteroid’s size and trajectory, NASA plans to observe it with the James Webb Space Telescope in March.